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研究生中文姓名:黃柏鈞
研究生英文姓名:Huang, Po-Chun
中文論文名稱:電力變壓器可靠度及總體擁有成本分析
英文論文名稱:Reliability and Total Ownership Cost Analysis of Power Transformer
指導教授姓名:陸臺根
口試委員中文姓名:教授︰吳啟瑞
助理教授︰許世哲
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立臺灣海洋大學
系所名稱:電機工程學系
學號:10353070
請選擇論文為:應用型
畢業年度:108
畢業學年度:107
學期:
語文別:中文
論文頁數:71
中文關鍵詞:可靠度故障率總體擁有成本
英文關鍵字:ReliabilityFailure rateTotal Ownership Cost
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電力變壓器是電力輸電及配電系統中最重要的設備之一,因為全球性能源需求,加上先進國家的現代電力網絡建設及智慧電力網絡計畫,以及各國電力變壓器的新置與更新升級計畫,其需求不斷。同時,電力業者及企業用戶對於電力品質穩定度的要求日益嚴苛,除了投資購置成本外,電力系統包括電力變壓器的可靠度問題亦被重視。
電力變壓器之可靠度分析可由設備本身或其主要元件之故障率資料特性計算而得,分析結果可作為設計階段相關元件選用及使用階段維護及元件更換成本之依據。對於電力系統投資者或公民營單位欲興建變電站時之成本考量,就電力變壓器設備部分,除了購置成本外,尚需計入使用年限期間之各項損耗及維護成本。損耗成本主要由鐵損及銅損造成,維護成本則與設計階段元件的選用及維持可靠度所需的維護項目及頻率有關。
本文建立電力變壓器可靠度及總體擁有成本之基本分析方法,並進一步比較其相關因素變化時之結果。在可靠度分析部分,基於不同電力變壓器韋伯分布之形狀參數β及特徵壽命η之變化,探討其機率密度函數、可靠度與不可靠度機率、故障率及更換預備金等之相對變化。並比較出符合業界期待之形狀參數β及特徵壽命η,其可靠度及不可靠度機率可做為電力變壓器設計階段相關評估之用,亦可用以合理計算於使用期間因故障所必須考慮的更換預備金。
在總體擁有成本部分,本文以不同的購置成本、銅損、鐵損及維護成本變化情境,分析其對總體擁有成本之影響。並初步做出雖然選擇較高購置成本,但使用期間具有較低鐵損銅損成本及維護成本,仍將獲得較低總體擁有成本之結論。
Power transformers are one of the most important equipment in power transmission and distribution systems. Because of global energy demand, modern power network and smart power network in advanced countries, as well as new and updated upgrade plans in various countries, power transformers’ demand continues. At the same time, power industry and enterprise users have increasingly requirements for the stability of power quality. In addition to investment and purchase costs, the reliability of power systems, including power transformers, has also been valued.
The reliability analysis of the power transformer can be calculated from the failure rate data of the equipment itself or its main components. The analysis results can be used as the basis for the selection and use of relevant components during the design phase and the maintenance and replacement costs. For the cost considerations of power system investors or private companies when they want to build substations, in addition to the purchase cost of the power transformer, they need to be included in various losses and maintenance costs during the service life. The loss cost is mainly caused by iron loss and copper loss, and the maintenance cost is related to the selection of components during the design phase and the maintenance items and frequency required to maintain reliability.
This paper establishes a basic analysis method of power transformer reliability and Total Ownership Cost, and further compares the results when their related factors change. In the reliability analysis part, based on the change of the shape parameter β and characteristic life η of the Weibull distribution of different power transformers, the relative changes of the probability density function, the probability of reliability and unreliability, the failure rate, and the replacement cost are discussed. The shape parameters β and characteristic life η that meet the expectations of the industry are compared. Their reliability and probability of unreliability can be used for related evaluation in the design stage of power transformers, and can also be used for reasonable calculating the replacement cost.
In the part of Total Ownership Cost, this paper analyzes its impact on the total cost of ownership with different scenarios of purchase cost, copper loss, iron loss, and maintenance cost. It also made the preliminary conclusion that although the higher purchase cost is selected, if the iron loss, copper loss cost and maintenance cost could be lower during the use period, a lower Total Ownership Cost could still be obtained.
致謝 I
摘要 II
ABSTRACT III
目次 IV
圖次 VI
表次 VIII
第一章、緒論 1
1.1 研究動機與背景 1
1.2 研究文獻探討 2
1.3 研究流程與目的 7
1.4 論文章節說明 8
第二章、問題描述 9
2.1 電力變壓器概述 9
2.2 電力變壓器故障類型及統計 16
2.3 電力變壓器之總體擁有成本 21
2.4 電力變壓器使用年限案例 22
第三章、理論模型 24
3.1 電力變壓器可靠度參數 24
3.2 總體擁有成本 34
3.3 故障模式與效應分析 37
3.4 FMEA風險優先數法(RPN) 42
3.5 故障樹分析法 46
第四章、模擬分析 49
4.1 總體擁有成本分析 49
4.2 可靠度分析 57
4.3 FMEA關鍵性矩陣分析結果 62
4.4 FMEA風險優先數法分析結果 64
4.5 故障樹分析結果 65
第五章、結論與未來研究方向 66
5.1 結論 66
5.2 未來研究方向 67
參考文獻 69



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全文檔開放日期:2019/12/30
 
 
 
 
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